The End of an Era: Dusty Baker

Three days after the Cincinnati Reds were eliminated in convincing fashion in the NL Wild Card game, Dusty Baker has been relieved of his managerial duties. In other words, Bob Castellini and the Reds have fired Dusty Baker.

Judging by the talent and the recent success of this Reds team, 2013 was a big disappointment. They coasted through the season and never really came together as a team. Maybe it was due to lack of leadership on the field. Maybe it had to do with all the injuries. Or maybe it was simply time for a change in the clubhouse.

Dusty Baker is a good manager. He’s taken three different teams to the playoffs and been named Manager of the Year on three different occasions. You don’t rack up those kinds of numbers unless you’re doing something right.

Dusty prides himself on being a players manager. By all indications, guys love playing for him and rightfully so. He always sticks up for his players and gives them ample time to “find their groove”. Since taking over in 2008, he’s done a good job of keeping the pulse of the team and pushing the right buttons at the right times.

Until this year. For whatever reason, it seemed like Baker lost the team this year. Players seemed lethargic or uninterested at times and they rarely showed emotion on the field. Losing the last six games of the season and being dominated by the Pirates along the way proved it was time for a change.

Perhaps more than anything, this news proves it was time for Dusty to go…

With all that being said, Dusty did some great things during his tenure in Cincinnati. Similar to what Carson Palmer did for the Bengals, Dusty helped make the Reds relevant once again. He led the Reds to their first playoff appearance in fifteen years in 2010 and changed the culture in Cincinnati along the way.

Eventually his laid back approach and stubbornness wore on the fan base and apparently on the ownership, but we shouldn’t forget everything Dusty Baker did for this franchise. He’s the most successful Reds manager since the beloved Lou Piniella and he deserves some recognition.

Alas, it was indeed the time for a change in Cincinnati.

While fans and analysts continue throwing around ludicrous names such as Pete Rose and Johnny Bench to become the next manager of the Cincinnati Reds, I will trust Bob Castellini and Walt Jocketty to make the right decision. The best part about this franchise is they have the right men leading the team from the very top.

Regardless of the decision, I hope Reds fans remember Dusty Baker for more than just this season.

Cincinnati Reds: 2013 All-Star Break

The Cincinnati Reds sit at 53-42 and 5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. They currently hold a 5 game lead in the NL Wild Card race over the Washington Nationals. If the season ended today, the Reds would play a one game Wild Card in Pittsburgh with the winner getting St. Louis in the NLDS.

To say the first half of the season has been a grind would be an understatement. The Reds have been bitten repeatedly by the injury bug since Opening Day. They have played the majority of the season without their ace, cleanup hitter, and two of their best relief pitchers.

All things considered, the Reds are still on pace to win 91 games and return to the playoffs for the third time in four years. So why does the first half of the season feel like a disappointment?

The Reds miss Ryan Ludwick

To start, the Reds haven’t passed the oft-used “eye test” of a champion. They still haven’t played close to their best baseball. They have experienced injury issues, a depleted bullpen, inconsistencies at the plate, and too many errors in the field.

This team entered 2013 with high expectations. The front office made it clear they were competing for a championship when it acquired Shin-Soo Choo for what looks like a one year rental. Trading homegrown talent such as Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregarious for Choo displayed a win-now mentality from Walt Jocketty and company.

You either believe the Reds are what they are, or you believe they can improve in the second half and contend for the division crown. I believe the Reds are a better team than what they displayed in the first half of the season.

In my opinion, if they can get healthy and take advantage of an easier second half schedule, there is no reason to believe they can’t challenge the Cardinals and Pirates for the division title. Over the course of a month, they have 10 games against the Cardinals. They end the season with 6 of their last 9 games against the Pirates.

There is still a lot of baseball left.

They key to the 2012 division title was a 15-1 record out of the All-Star break. Joey Votto was placed on the disabled list and the Reds promptly won 10 games in a row and set the pace for the remainder of the season. While it’s unlikely the Reds will duplicate those efforts this year, I still believe they have a hot streak or two in them for the second half.

Brandon Phillips is the first-half MVP for the Reds

As I’ve written numerous times throughout the season, baseball is a game of ups and downs and highs and lows. The Reds have had a lot of lows during the first half of the season. Call me an optimist, but I believe the Reds best baseball is still ahead.

Make all the fuss you want about how great the Cardinals have been this season, (and they have been tremendous) but I would rather be in first place at the end of the season than at the All-Star break.

Now then, let’s hand out some awards:

MVP

Brandon Phillips production at the plate has carried the Reds much of the first half. His defense remains among the class of the league and he’s hitting .404 with RISP. The team is hitting .252 with RISP. So yeah, Phillips is clearly the first half MVP.

Best Pitcher

This is a close race between Mat Latos and Mike Leake. Leake has been spectacular this season and arguably the biggest surprise on the entire team. His 2.69 ERA is the best among the staff and he has already won as many games as all of last season.

With that being said, I give the nod to Mat Latos. Latos has taken over the role as the team ace in the absence of Johnny Cueto and has delivered solid numbers while already notching 8 wins on the season. If the season ended today, Mat Latos would get the ball for the one game Wild Card in Pittsburgh.

Biggest Surprise

As I just mentioned, Mike Leake has been one of the few bright spots for the Reds this season. A lot of fans seem to forget Leake is only 25 years old and still learning the ropes. He’s transforming from a fifth starter to a legitimate number three and it’s been very fun to watch.

Biggest Disappointment

Todd Frazier has been far too inconsistent for the sixth batter in the lineup. He’s hitting .239 and striking out at an alarming rate. Frazier will need to turn things around in the second half if the Reds want to win the division.

Best Moment

This is easy. Homer David Bailey throwing his second no-hitter in the past year. Few sports moments make you stop whatever you’re doing and find a television or radio or computer. The no-hitter is one of those moments. The no-hitter is one of the most beautiful things in baseball and Homer Bailey made us all proud to be Reds fans.

Second Half Prediction

The Reds win the first series after the break against Pittsburgh and then tread water on their 10 game road-trip out west. They use a soft portion of their schedule in the middle of August to gain some momentum and get Ryan Ludwick back from the DL. For the first time all year, the Reds have Choo, Phillips, Votto, Ludwick, and Bruce in the same lineup.

The Reds play the Cardinals seven times in eleven days and use their balanced lineup to pull within one game of the Cards. The final month of the season is the most exciting race in baseball as the Reds, Cardinals, and Pirates battle for the division crown all the way to the last game of the season.

Alas, the Cardinals get Chris Carpenter back at just the right time and fend off the Reds and Pirates for the division. The Reds return to the playoffs for the third time in four years. The Pirates are the odd team out as the Washington Nationals earn the second wild card and play at GABP for the chance to play St. Louis in the NLDS.

Cincinnati Reds’ Bullpen Woes

The Cincinnati Reds are 39-26 and 3.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central division. The Reds are playing some of the best baseball in the majors through roughly a third of the season. Starting pitching has posted the second best ERA in the NL, while the offense has accounted for the third most runs scored in the NL.

Despite their best start in nearly a decade, the bullpen has become a legitimate concern.

Jonathan Broxton has struggled recently

In 2012, the Reds had arguably the best bullpen in baseball. They posted an ERA of 2.65 and were second in homeruns allowed per nine innings with .68. More importantly, the 2012 bullpen shortened games and helped the Reds win 97 games and runaway with the NL Central.

This season has been a much different story.

The bullpen has accounted for 13 losses and numerous blown saves to this point. Additionally, the bullpen is last in home runs allowed per nine innings with 1.27. Translation: relievers are giving up a lot of home runs. Home runs cost teams games.

Most recently, the bullpen blew games in Pittsburgh and then at home against the Rockies and Cardinals. Jonathan Broxton has looked uncomfortable in the eighth inning and is walking far too many batters. After looking nearly unhittable in the month of May, Sam Lecure has surrendered the lead in his last two appearances.

Furthermore, the bullpen is lacking a left hander to utilize in late game situations. Sean Marshall is out until at least July, and Manny Parra simply isn’t getting it done (posting an ERA of 9.00 over the last month). Outside of Aroldis Chapman, the Reds don’t have any left handed pitchers for Dusty Baker to rely on in crunch time.

Dusty has tried different pitchers in different spots to find something that will work. He’s already made it clear Chapman won’t pitch more than one inning at a time and he doesn’t want to wear out his arm.

The Reds miss Sean Marshall

For now, the Reds will continue to rely on starting pitching and clutch hitting to keep pace with the Cardinals.

History says the bullpen will begin playing to the back of their baseball cards and hopefully get back on track. Sean Marshall is feeling better and hopefully will return soon enough to give the bullpen a boost.

Even if the bullpen turns things around, don’t be surprised if Walt Jocketty brings in another arm around the trade deadline. Jocketty has shown he’s not afraid to make moves at the deadline if he can improve the team.

The Reds have a championship team and are among the 4 or 5 best clubs in baseball. There is still plenty of time to improve and solidify the back end of the bullpen. There is no doubt it will be needed come October.

Here Come the Redlegs….

The Cincinnati Reds won their fourth straight game last night and improved to 8-3 in the month of May. Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto pitched five innings and gave up no runs, three hits, no walks and struck out four during his second rehab start in Class A Dayton. All signs point to Cueto returning to the Reds rotation as soon as Sunday in Philadelphia.

For a team which was bitten badly by the injury bug in April, the Reds find themselves seven games over .500 and only two games out of first place in the NL Central. Sean Marshall, Ryan Hanigan, and now Johnny Cueto have all returned from the DL over the past few weeks and have been major contributors to the recent wave of success.

JOHNNY CUETO IS SET TO RETURN TO ROTATION

Perhaps now would be a good time to give Dusty Baker some credit. With left fielders Ryan Ludwick and Chris Heisey still on the disabled list, Dusty has done a good job of juggling Derrick Robinson, Xavier Paul, and Donald Lutz.

Rather than panic after losing his clean-up hitter on Opening Day, Dusty has kept the pulse of the team and guided them to the 4th best record in baseball.

The Reds find themselves on day two of a 9 game road trip against three teams with losing records. Is it premature to think they can go 6-3 or 7-2 on the road trip? The month of May was the springboard for a team that won 97 games in 2012. With key contributors returning from the disabled list, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce heating up, and sub .500 teams in their near future, the month of May could prove to be fruitful yet again.

This team certainly isn’t perfect, but nobody is perfect in May. They have suffered too many injuries and personnel changes to establish an identity. That’s why a 23-16 record is so impressive. They have beat the teams they’re supposed to beat and played near .500 ball against everyone else. That’s a recipe for reaching the playoffs. Once they make the playoffs, anything can happen.

IT’S TIME TO GIVE DUSTY SOME CREDIT

For now, give Dusty Baker some credit for remaining calm and collected during a somewhat strange start to the season. Teams often take on the personality of their manager. Watching this Reds team the last few years should prove how valuable Dusty has been in that regard. The players never get too high or too low and they always believe they have a chance to win.

With four of their next five series against sub-.500 teams, don’t be surprised if the Reds surpass the Cardinals by Memorial Day. As previously noted, the month of May has been kind to this team in years past.

Now is the time to take advantage of a weak schedule and healthy pitching staff. Now is the time to make a run. Now is the time to trust Dusty Baker.